Fourth quarter investment growth is expected to rebound month by month; in September CPI mater-www.97se.com

Fourth quarter investment growth is expected to rebound   month by month; in September CPI material rose about 1.6% – Fujian Channel – People’s original title: Quarterly investment growth is expected to rise month by month, September CPI material rose by about 1.6%, the National Bureau of statistics will release September economic data. Insiders predict that the future fiscal policy will continue to be positive, monetary policy will focus on transmission channels, and continue to promote the credit union reasonable growth. It is expected that in September, CPI year-on-year growth will pick up slightly last month, around 1.6%, PPI decline is expected to continue to narrow. Fourth quarter fixed asset investment growth may pick up month by month. Without significant inflation deflation pressure, Lian Ping, chief economist at the Bank of communications, said that the Ministry of Commerce and the National Bureau of statistics have announced data estimates, food prices are expected to rise in September between 0.5%-1%, an increase compared to last month. Since last year’s vegetable prices almost zero growth, making food prices in September this year, year-on-year growth rose to about 1.9%-2.4%, or significantly expanded than last month. Non food prices continue to rise slightly, the year-on-year growth rate may be around 1.2%-1.5%. In September, the risk factor was 0.21%, which was 0.1 percentage points lower than that of August. Comprehensive judgment, in September CPI year-on-year growth rate may be between 1.4%-1.9%, the median value is 1.6%, higher than last month. Lian Ping said that in the absence of strong stimulation of monetary policy, liquidity again push the overall high possibility of CPI is small, but the tight supply and demand of food prices may be rising stage. CPI hikes increased slightly in October and November, which may play a lifting role in stabilizing prices, but the range of uplift is limited. It is expected that the operation of CPI will be basically stable in the future, and there will be no obvious inflation or deflation pressure. Liang Hong, chief economist at CICC, expects price index to rise in September. Food, pork and other meat and poultry prices fell, but the eggs and vegetable prices significantly. Housing prices will continue to push up rents. Service, entertainment and health care may continue to rise with cost. CPI is expected to rise by 1.6% in September. Some important industrial products such as coal, iron and steel, iron ore, cement, glass, chemicals and other prices continue to go up. Affected by limited production, coal prices rose most prominent. PPI is expected to grow -0.2%. Investment growth is expected to rebound, China Financial Futures Exchange Research Institute chief economist Zhao Qingming said that, due to the high base last year, the first 9 months of this year, investment growth continued to decline. Is expected in the first 9 months of fixed asset investment growth rate of 7.7%, real estate development and investment growth of 4.8%, manufacturing investment growth of 2.5%, the growth rate of investment in infrastructure is 19.6%, since last October, the low base in December, is expected in October this year, November, December growth rate of fixed asset investment will rise month on month. China Merchants Securities Research Report is expected in September fixed asset investment year-on-year growth rate rebounded slightly, first, PPP project start-up rate is expected to enter the peak; two is the real estate sales and land transaction scale in the three quarter to maintain stability, help slow 四季度投资增速有望逐月回升 9月CPI料料涨1.6%左右–福建频道–人民网 原标题:四季度投资增速有望逐月回升 9月CPI料料涨1.6%左右   国家统计局即将发布9月经济数据。业内人士预计,未来财政政策将继续保持积极,货币政策将注重传导渠道,继续推动信贷社融合理增长。预计9月CPI同比涨幅将比上月小幅回升,在1.6%左右,PPI跌幅有望继续收窄。四季度固定资产投资增速可能逐月回升。   不存明显通胀通缩压力   交通银行首席经济学家连平表示,综合参考商务部和国家统计局已公布数据测算,预计9月食品价格环比涨幅在0.5%-1%之间,涨幅比上个月扩大。由于去年同期蔬菜价格环比几乎零增长,使得今年9月食品价格同比涨幅上升至1.9%-2.4%左右,涨幅比上个月明显扩大。非食品价格环比延续微升态势,同比涨幅可能在1.2%-1.5%左右。9月翘尾因素为0.21%,比8月下降0.1个百分点。综合判断,9月CPI同比涨幅可能在1.4%-1.9%之间,取中值为1.6%,比上个月有所上升。   连平表示,在不出现强刺激货币政策的情况下,流动性充裕再次整体推高CPI的可能性不大,但供求关系偏紧的食品价格可能阶段性上涨。CPI翘尾因素在10月和11月小幅上升,可能对物价企稳起到抬升作用,但抬升幅度有限。预计未来CPI运行基本平稳,不存在明显的通胀或通缩压力。   中金公司首席经济学家梁红预计9月价格指数上升。食品方面,猪肉等肉禽类价格下跌,但蛋类和蔬菜类涨价明显。房价上涨将继续推高租金。服务、文娱和医疗保健等在成本推动下可能延续涨价态势。预计9月CPI同比上涨1.6%。一些重要工业品如煤炭、钢铁、铁矿石、水泥、玻璃、化工品等价格继续上行。受限产影响,煤价上涨最为突出。预计PPI同比涨幅为-0.2%。   投资增速有望回升   中国金融期货交易所研究院首席经济学家赵庆明表示,由于去年基数较高,今年前9个月投资增速继续下降。预计前9个月固定资产投资增速为7.7%,房地产开发投资增速为4.8%,制造业投资增速为2.5%,基建投资增速为19.6%,由于去年10月、12月基数较低,预计今年10月、11月、12月固定资产投资增速将逐月回升。   招商证券研究报告预计9月固定资产投资同比增速小幅回升,一是PPP项目开工率有望进入高峰期;二是地产销售和土地成交规模在三季度保持稳定,有助于缓解短期地产投资下行速度;三是工业企业利润持续回升对制造业投资止跌回稳有一定帮助。   梁红表示,从政策方面看,房价快速上涨、汇率因素掣肘等将制约货币政策进一步宽松的空间,下半年可能不会降息,但央行将保持流动性大体稳定。财政及准财政政策有足够空间支持四季度经济稳定增长。保持宏观政策连贯和透明有助于稳定市场预期,提振经济活动。   光大证券首席经济学家徐高表示,未来几个月,财政政策将继续保持积极,PPP项目落地将加速;货币政策将注重传导渠道,继续推动信贷和社会融资规模合理增长。清晰的稳增长信号将继续增强实体经济投资意愿,推动需求持续改善,实现经济企稳回升。(彭扬) (责编:陈蓝燕、张子剑)相关的主题文章:

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